Previous research has established that overall criminal activity peaks in the summer and declines in the winter. But researchers Todd R. Jones from Mississippi State University and Ezra Kargen from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago found new evidence suggesting that juvenile crime follows the school calendar, with rates highest during the school year and lowest during the summer.
Using individual criminal incident reports from the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) for the years 2017-19, the researchers confirmed that general criminal activity increases during the summer. But they found that incidents involving children aged 10-17 increase by roughly 40-50 percent at the beginning of the school year and drop by 20-30 percent at the end of the year. Overall, the study found that school environment contributes to a 47 percent increase in reported crimes and a 41 percent increase in arrests among 10- to 17-year-olds. The results are consistent across demographic groups, but because different sexes and races have different baseline crime rates, the Black-white and male-female crime gaps widen during the school year.
The researchers emphasize that these findings do not suggest that schools fail a cost-benefit test, but they do caution against assuming that schools universally reduce crime. Prior work has primarily focused on at-risk children, showing the benefit of schooling for those who might otherwise drop out. This study shows that, in aggregate, school environment contributes to higher rates of criminal activity among all children, though the authors suggest that additional research is necessary to understand what’s driving the relationship between school and criminal activity—and thus what’s required to create a safer learning environment for children.