Researchers Tom Swiderski, Sarah Crittenden Fuller, and Kevin C. Bastian from the University of North Carolina examined the relationship between student absenteeism and achievement before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Their findings show that while absenteeism continues to negatively affect student achievement, the strength of this relationship has weakened post-pandemic.
Chronic absenteeism has risen significantly since the pandemic, with rates nearly doubling from 15 percent in the 2018-19 school year to 28 percent in 2021-22. Using student-level data from North Carolina, the researchers analyzed how absenteeism influenced math achievement by comparing elementary and middle school students from 2021-22 and 2022-23 with pre-pandemic cohorts from 2016-17 to 2018-19. They also examined whether a student’s learning was affected by how often their classmates were absent.
Before the pandemic, each missed school day was associated with a larger drop in math scores than after the pandemic. On average, students in 2022-23 missed about three more days of school than their pre-pandemic peers, but this increase accounted for only 6 percent of the overall test score decline, compared to 10 percent in earlier years. While absenteeism remains a factor in learning loss, it is not the primary driver of post-pandemic declines in achievement.
The study also found that after the pandemic, classmates’ absences had little effect on individual student performance. Before COVID-19, some evidence suggested that being in a classroom with frequently absent peers could slightly lower a student’s test scores, likely because teachers had to slow down or repeat material, but this pattern largely disappeared post-pandemic.
The researchers suggest several possible reasons for the weakened relationship between absenteeism and achievement. Increased access to online learning tools may have helped students keep up with coursework even when absent. Schools may also be moving at a slower instructional pace to address earlier learning losses, reducing the amount of missed content when students are out. Additionally, expanded tutoring programs and other academic supports may have helped students recover from absences more effectively than before the pandemic.
While improving attendance remains important, it alone will not restore student learning to pre-pandemic levels. Researchers recommend continuing to track future student cohorts to see whether the weakened link between absenteeism and achievement persists and to explore how schools and educators are adapting to higher absenteeism rates.